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Ag Market Commentary
BRUG - Mon Jul 22, 5:41PM CDT

Corn futures ended the Monday session with most contracts 7 to 9 cents in the red. Cooler Corn Belt temps this week are a negative, helpful as more of the crop reaches the pollination stage. The weekly Crop Progress report showed 35% of the crop silking as of Sunday vs. the 66% average, with 5% in the dough stage (10% average). Corn conditions slipped 1% to 57% gd/ex and 2 points on the Brugler500 index to 351. Analysts were expecting steady to a 1% improvement. The Export Inspections report from USDA showed corn shipments of just 438,045 MT in the week that ended on July 18. That was a 36.56% drop from last week and less than 1/3 of the same week last year. AgRural estimates the Brazilian second corn crop at 67% harvested, which is well above the 36% from this week last year.

SEP 19 Corn is at $4.22 1/4, down 8 1/2 cents,

DEC 19 Corn is at $4.26 3/4, down 9 cents,

MAR 20 Corn is at $4.35 3/4, down 8 1/4 cents

MAY 20 Corn is at $4.40 1/4, down 7 3/4 cents

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Soybean futures closed Monday with most nearby contracts 13 to 13 1/2 cents lower. August soybean meal was down $2.80/ton, with soy oil 37 points lower. Cooler forecasts and rains from this weekend along with no news about Chinese purchases caused some selling pressure. This afternoon’s NASS report indicated that 40% of the US soybean crop was blooming as od 7/21 (66% avg), with 7% setting pods (28% avg). As expected, conditions were unch at 54% gd/ex and 347 on the Brugler 500index. USDA reported 559,462 MT of soybeans inspected for export during the week that ended on July 18. That was 34.6% below the week prior and down 23.17% from this week in 2018. Of that total, 317,456 MT was headed to China.

AUG 19 Soybeans are at $8.88 1/4, down 13 1/4 cents,

SEP 19 Soybeans are at $8.94, down 13 1/4 cents,

NOV 19 Soybeans are at $9.05 3/4, down 13 1/2 cents,

JAN 20 Soybeans are at $9.18 1/2, down 13 1/4 cents,

AUG 19 Soybean Meal is at $308.40, down $2.80,

AUG 19 Soybean Oil is at $27.73, down $0.37

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Wheat futures were down 8 to 15 1/4 cents in most contracts on Monday. All wheat exports for the week that ended on 7/18 were tallied at 433,117 MT via USDA’s Export Inspections report. That was a 24.27% jump from the previous and slightly higher than this week last year. The spring wheat quality tour is being held this week, which should contribute to our understanding of the MPLS HRS crop. NASS reported the spring wheat crop at 76%, unch from the previous week with the Brugler500 up 3 points on a swing from good to excellent. The crop was reported at 92% headed vs. the 94% average. The winter wheat harvest progressed 12% from the previous week to 69% complete but still lags the 79% average pace. Russia’s IKAR trimmed their 19/20 wheat crop estimated by 1.3 MMT to 76.1 MMT, vs. the USDA at 74.2 MMT. Egypt is tendering for wheat, with results expected on Tuesday.

SEP 19 CBOT Wheat is at $4.87 1/4, down 15 1/4 cents,

SEP 19 KCBT Wheat is at $4.29 1/4, down 10 3/4 cents,

SEP 19 MGEX Wheat is at $5.21 1/4, down 8 cents

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Live cattle futures saw 65 to 85 cent gains in the front months on Monday, following Friday’s USDA reports. Feeder cattle futures received some additional help from corn, with the front months $2.20 to $2.625 higher. The monthly NASS Cold Storage report indicated another drop in frozen beef stocks to 394.525 million lbs on June 30. That was down another 2.62% from May and 12.05% below a year ago at a 5-year low. The CME feeder cattle index was down 49 cents @ $138.16 on July 19. Wholesale boxed beef prices were mixed on Monday afternoon with Choice boxes down a dime per cwt at $213.32 and Select boxes 8 cents higher @ $189.59. USDA estimated Monday’s FI cattle slaughter at 114,000 head, which is 3,000 head below last week and 4,000 above the same Monday last year.

AUG 19 Cattle are at $108.450, up $0.85,

OCT 19 Cattle are at $109.150, up $0.65,

DEC 19 Cattle are at $113.800, up $0.65,

AUG 19 Feeder Cattle are at $142.175, up $2.20,

SEP 19 Feeder Cattle are at $142.425, up $2.625,

OCT 19 Feeder Cattle are at $142.650, up $2.625,

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Lean Hog futures were firm, to 40 cents higher in most contracts on Monday. August was down 65 cents, marking time as it is showing a $10 premium to the index. The CME Lean Hog Index was up 88 cents from the previous day on July 18 @ $72.40. The newly updated CME Fresh Bacon Index was up $5.81 wk/wk at $137.89/cwt. The USDA pork carcass cutout value rose $2.08 at $80.61 on Monday afternoon. All primals were reported higher. The national average base hog value was up $3.78 on Monday at $76.02. Estimated FI hog slaughter was 473,000 head on Monday. That was up 63,000 head from the previous week and 49,000 head below the same week last year. Frozen pork stocks at the end of June were tallied at 622.367 million lbs. That was up 10.77% from last year but a drop of 1.05% from May. Belly stocks were up 5.98% from a year ago at 56.563 million lbs, but down 11.95% from May.

AUG 19 Hogs are at $83.225, down $0.65,

OCT 19 Hogs are at $79.200, up $0.275,

DEC 19 Hogs are at $77.025, up $0.275,

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Cotton futures settled firm to 39 points higher in most front months on Monday. The weekly Crop Progress report from NASS showed the 2019 US cotton crop at 78% squared (80% avg), as 33% was reported as setting bolls (37% avg). Cotton conditions improved another 4% to 60% gd/ex, with the Brugler500 shifting 11 points higher to 358. The 7-day QPF shows very little moisture for most of TX over the next week, with parts of the Southeast seeing a few showers. The Cotlook A index for July 18 was down 75 points from the previous day at 72.95 cents/lb. The weekly AWP is 55.81 cents/lb effective through Thursday.

OCT 19 Cotton is at 62.64, up 39 points,

DEC 19 Cotton is at 63.36, up 29 points

MAR 20 Cotton is at 64.13, up 15 points

MAY 20 Cotton is at 65.02, up 5 points

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



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