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Ag Market Commentary
BRUG - Thu Dec 06, 5:00PM CST

Corn futures ended the Thursday session with most contracts 1 to 2 1/4 cents lower. USDA reported a private export sale of 198,120 MT of corn to Mexico this morning, with 106,680 MT for 18/19 delivery and the balance for 19/20. This morning’s delayed EIA report showed ethanol production in the final week of November at 1.069 million barrels per day. That was up 21,000 bpd from the week prior, as ethanol stockpiles rose 100,000 barrels to 23.030 million barrels. US census data released this morning showed October corn exports @ 5.695 MMT (224.19 mbu), more than double last year and the second largest ever for October. DDG exports were also the second most for October at 1.018 MMT, with ethanol exports an October record 175.41 million gallons. Analysts expect Friday morning’s Export Sales report to show 0.8-1.1 MMT in corn sales for the week of 11/29.

Dec 18 Corn closed at $3.72, down 2 1/4 cents,

Mar 19 Corn closed at $3.82 3/4, down 1 1/2 cents,

May 19 Corn closed at $3.90, down 1 1/4 cents

Jul 19 Corn closed at $3.96 1/4, down 1 1/4 cents

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Soybean futures closed Thursday with contracts down 3 to 4 cents. Jan was 1/2 cent from filling Monday’s gap. Nearby soy meal was down $1.90/ton, with soy oil 10 points lower. October exports of soybeans were reported at 5.58 million metric tonnes (205.04 mbu) by Census this morning. That was 72.37% larger than September but down 42.15% from last year. They also reported soybean meal exports of 1.004 MMT for October, a record for that month. Soybean export sales in the week of 11/29 are seen at 600,000-900,000 MT. Soy meal is estimated at 175,000-400,000 MT, with bean oil at 8,000-26,000 MT. The report will be released on Friday morning. Stats Canada released production estimates on Thursday morning, with 18/19 canola production seen at 20.343 MMT, down 4.62% from last year. Canadian soybean production is estimated at 7.267 MMT, 5.84% lower than last year.

Jan 19 Soybeans closed at $9.09 1/2, down 4 cents,

Mar 19 Soybeans closed at $9.22, down 3 1/2 cents,

May 19 Soybeans closed at $9.34 1/2, down 3 3/4 cents,

Aug 19 Soybeans closed at $9.50 1/4, down 4 cents,

Dec 18 Soybean Meal closed at $310.00, down $1.90,

Dec 18 Soybean Oil closed at $28.47, down $0.10

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Wheat futures settled the day with 2 to 6 1/4 cent losses in most contracts, as nearby Dec showed low volume ahead of next Friday’s expiration. MPLS was the weakest. Monthly trade data from Census showed that 1.904 MMT (69.97 mbu) of US wheat was exported in October. That was 4.6% larger than September and 45.42% above a year ago. Weekly export sales for all wheat are estimated at 300,000-600,000 MT. Taiwan importers purchased 110,000 MT of US wheat in their tender on Wednesday. Japan’s weekly MOA tender also saw purchases of 143,643 MT of wheat, with 62,975 MT US specific and the balance Canadian and Australian. Canadian wheat production for 18/19 is seen at 31.769 MMT according to Stats Can, up 5.95% from last year. Egypt’s GASC purchased 290,000 MT Russian and 60,000 MT Ukrainian wheat for Jan 21-31 delivery in their tender on Thursday, with no offers from the US.

Dec 18 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.05 1/4, down 9 1/4 cents,

Dec 18 KCBT Wheat closed at $4.68 3/4, down 7 3/4 cents,

Dec 18 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.78, down 6 1/4 cents

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Live cattle futures saw losses of 35 to 65 cents in most contracts on Thursday. Feeder cattle futures were down 35 cents to $1.35 on the day. The CME feeder cattle index was down 85 cents on December 5 at $145.53. Wholesale beef prices were mixed on Thursday afternoon, tightening the Ch/Se spread to $14.45. Choice boxes were down 59 cents at $212.36, with the Select cutout value $1.36 higher at $198.22. USDA’s estimated FI cattle slaughter is at 481,000 head WTD, up 5,000 head from last week and 3,000 head larger than a year ago. Little cash trade has been reported so far this week outside of the FCE’s $117.50-118 on Wednesday. Bids were around $112-114 on Thursday.

Dec 18 Cattle closed at $117.950, down $0.350,

Feb 19 Cattle closed at $121.800, down $0.575,

Apr 19 Cattle closed at $123.475, down $0.400,

Jan 19 Feeder Cattle closed at $144.200, down $1.275

Mar 19 Feeder Cattle closed at $141.950, down $1.100

Apr 19 Feeder Cattle closed at $142.525, down $1.350

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Lean Hog futures were 50 cents to $1.325 lower on Thursday. The CME Lean Hog Index was up 2 cents from the previous day @ $56.40 on December 4. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was up 42 cents on Thursday afternoon at $72.12. The national base cash hog carcass value was down 3 cents this afternoon at an average weighted price of $47.52. USDA’s FI hog slaughter was estimated at 471,000 head for Thursday, bringing the WTD total to 1.893 million head. That was up 27,000 head from last week and 37,000 head larger than the same week last year.

Dec 18 Hogs closed at $54.525, down $1.325,

Feb 19 Hogs closed at $66.900, down $0.850

Apr 19 Hogs closed at $71.275, down $0.850

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Cotton futures posted 135 to 209 point losses on Thursday. The arrest of a Huawei executive increased tensions between US and China less than a week after the two countries called a 90 “truce.” October’s US cotton exports totaled 608,545 bales according to Census data, which was down 14.89% from last month but still 35.31% larger than a year ago. Weekly USDA Export Sales data will be released on Friday morning. The Cotlook A index was UNCH from the previous day on Dec 5 at 87.80 cents/lb. The weekly USDA AWP is currently 67.92 cents/lb.

Dec 18 Cotton closed at 78.020, down 209 points,

Mar 19 Cotton closed at 79.080, down 207 points

May 19 Cotton closed at 80.260, down 183 points

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



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