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Ag Market Commentary
cmdty Insider - BRUG - Thu Nov 08, 5:01PM CST

Corn futures ended Thursday with most contracts 1 to 2 cents higher. NASS updated their national corn yield projection to 178.9 bpa this morning, below than trade estimates and 1.8 bpa lower than October. That brought the US 18/19 production number to 14.626 bbu, down 152 mbu from last month. US ending stocks were trimmed by 77 mbu to 1.736 bbu. On the world side of things, USDA re-calculated the changes to Chinese corn production and stocks all the way back to 07/08. The Chinese government had revised their historical data earlier in the week after “technical issues” back in October. The USDA revisions showed 18/19 world carryout at 307.51 MMT, up 148.16 MMT from last month! On a side note Chinese ending stocks were revised 148.99 MMT higher at 207.49 MMT. Stocks outside of China were trimmed by 0.83 MMT. The weekly US Export Sales report showed 18/19 corn sales for the week of 11/1 within the range of estimates at 701,477 MT. That picked up 77.84% over last week but was still 70.33% lower than last years MY high.

Dec 18 Corn closed at $3.73 1/2, up 1 1/4 cents,

Mar 19 Corn closed at $3.85 1/4, up 1 1/2 cents,

May 19 Corn closed at $3.93 1/4, up 1 3/4 cents

Jul 19 Corn closed at $3.99 1/4, up 1 3/4 cents

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Soybean futures saw just fractional losses in most contracts on Thursday, despite pressure from a larger US carryout projection. Front month soy meal was down $1.90/ton, with soy oil 18 points lower. This morning’s Crop Production report from NASS showed US soybean yield at 52.1 bpa, down 1 bpa from October and under the average trade guess. The US production total was trimmed by 90 mbu to 4.6 bbu. US ending stocks rose to 955 mbu, 70 higher vs. October and pressured by weaker export demand. USDA had to cut projected US exports by 160 million bushels because it just isn’t happening. World ending stocks saw a 2.04 MMT increase to 112.08 MMT due to old crop revisions. USDA also reported that 388,422 MT of 18/19 soybeans were sold for export in the week of 11/1 in their weekly Export Sales report. That was slightly lower than last week and shy of expectations, with last year’s sales for the same week 66.5% larger. Soy meal sales were shown at 255,987 MT, with soy oil at 22,436 MT.

Nov 18 Soybeans closed at $8.67 1/2, down 1/4 cent,

Jan 19 Soybeans closed at $8.79, down 1/2 cent,

Mar 19 Soybeans closed at $8.92, down 1/4 cent,

Jul 19 Soybeans closed at $9.18 1/4, down 1/4 cent,

Dec 18 Soybean Meal closed at $306.10, down $1.90,

Dec 18 Soybean Oil closed at $28.02, down $0.18

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Wheat futures were fractionally lower in MPLS, with CBT down 2-3 and KC 3 to 5 cents lower in the front months. This morning’s monthly updates from the USDA showed US wheat 18/19 carryout at 949 mbu, down 7 mbu from October. That was mainly caused by higher seed usage, as USDA left their export projection at 1.025 bbu. World ending stocks for wheat were up 6.53 MMT to 266.71 MMT on historical revisions made mainly to China. Australian production was cut by 1 MMT to 17.5 MMT. US wheat export sales during the week of November 1 exceeded analysts’ expectations at 661,241 MT, up 13.5% from last week. The lead buyer was the Philippines @ 306,100 MT, with another 50,000 MT sold to Egypt. Japan purchased 121,488 MT of wheat in their weekly MOA tender from US and Canada, with 60,728 MT US specific.

Dec 18 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.07 3/4, down 2 1/2 cents,

Dec 18 KCBT Wheat closed at $4.97 1/4, down 5 cents,

Dec 18 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.80, down 3/4 cent

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Live cattle futures posted 25 to 55 cent gains in most contracts on Thursday. Feeder cattle futures were up 25 to 45 cents. The CME feeder cattle index was down 65 cents on November 7 at $152.23. Wholesale boxed beef prices were sharply lower on Thursday afternoon. Choice boxes were down $2.15 @ $216.07, with Select $2.66 lower at $199.11. USDA estimated FI cattle slaughter WTD at 473,000 head. That is 1,000 above the previous week and 5,000 head larger than the same day last year. USDA reported a few $180 dressed sales in the WCB today, but most cash trade has yet to occur. Export sales of beef in the week of 11/1 were tallied at 11,504 MT this morning, with shipments in that week at 16,003 metric tonnes (MT). The USDA S&D table showed 2018 beef production down 30 million pounds at 26.914 billion. Beef production for 2019 was 100 million lower at 27.810 billion pounds on lower first quarter production.

Dec 18 Cattle closed at $116.550, up $0.450,

Feb 19 Cattle closed at $119.875, up $0.275,

Apr 19 Cattle closed at $121.875, up $0.550,

Nov 18 Feeder Cattle closed at $150.175, up $0.250

Jan 19 Feeder Cattle closed at $146.275, up $0.450

Mar 19 Feeder Cattle closed at $144.475, up $0.300

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Lean Hog futures were steady to $1.10 lower in most contracts on Thursday, with nearby Dec up a dime. The CME Lean Hog Index was down 28 cents from the previous day @ $63.72 on November 6. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was down $1.18 @ $71.57 in the Thursday afternoon report. The national base hog carcass value was $1.18 lower this afternoon, with a weighted average of 54.31. FI hog slaughter was estimated 1.898 million head through Thursday by the USDA, with Wednesday’s slaughter revised down to 472,000 head. That is still up 15,000 from the previous week and 52,000 higher than the same week in 2017. Pork sales for export totaled 21,115 MT in the week of Nov 1, with exports at 25,285 MT. USDA Pork production for 2018 was reduced 105 million pounds to 26.32 billion on lower fourth quarter production. Their production estimate for 2019 was down 95 million pounds to 27.715 billion.

Dec 18 Hogs closed at $55.625, up $0.100,

Feb 19 Hogs closed at $60.125, down $1.100

Apr 19 Hogs closed at $66.775, down $0.650

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Cotton futures retreated from their highs to close the Thursday session with most contracts 3 to 11 points lower and Dec up 5. The US dollar index was sharply higher on the day. NASS trimmed the national cotton production total to 18.408 million bales today, down 1.355 million due mostly to cuts in GA and AL following Hurricane Michael. The national yield projection was cut by 49 lbs to 852 lb/ac. That tightened the US carryout number to 4.3 million bales (down 700,00 bales). World ending stocks were down 1.84 million bales to 72.61 million, with the help of a smaller Indian crop @ 28 million bales as well as tighter US stocks. The weekly Export Sales report indicated that a modest 91,007 RB of upland cotton was sold for 18/19 exports in the week of 11/1. Vietnam was the lead buyer of 87,400 RB, with 57,958 RB shown as net reductions for China. Sales for 19/20 totaled 15,488 RB. The Cotton Ginnings report showed that 4.877 million RB of cotton was ginned as of November 1, 2.455 million RB more than the Oct 15 report. The USDA weekly AWP was updated 69.86 cents/lb through next Thursday, up 130 points from last week.

Dec 18 Cotton closed at 79.010, up 5 points,

Mar 19 Cotton closed at 80.540, down 3 points

May 19 Cotton closed at 81.840, down 11 points

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



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